Severe thunderstorms could bring damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall to northeast and east-central Kansas Tuesday afternoon and evening, with flooding becoming a greater concern overnight and into Thursday.

The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a Flood Watch for portions of east-central Kansas from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Forecasters say multiple rounds of thunderstorms could produce 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized amounts of 3 to 4 inches possible in the watch area.

A slight risk, or Level 2 of 5, for severe thunderstorms remains in effect Tuesday for much of the region, including Manhattan, Junction City and Topeka.

Storms are expected to develop along a cold front between 3 and 5 p.m., intensifying as they move northeast. The strongest storms are expected between 5 and 8 p.m., with another round of strong storms potentially moving into the region from central Kansas between 8 and 11 p.m.

Forecasters say storms could produce wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, hail between 1 and 2 inches in diameter and rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. The tornado risk is considered low.

The threat is expected to transition toward flooding Tuesday night as additional storms develop. Rain chances remain high through Thursday, with another round of heavy rainfall possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

The Weather Service says an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall during that period, potentially bringing storm-total rainfall to 3 to 5 inches in portions of east-central Kansas. Confidence has increased in the potential for flash flooding and river flooding, particularly in areas under the Flood Watch.

According to the latest forecast, Manhattan could receive between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain through Thursday, with higher totals possible farther south and east.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported Tuesday morning that Tuttle Creek Reservoir was utilizing 12% of its flood storage capacity, down from 13% Monday.

As of 6 a.m. Tuesday, the reservoir’s elevation stood at 1,091.74 feet, down from 1,092.44 feet Monday morning.

Inflows were measured at 4,425 cubic feet per second Tuesday morning, while outflows remained at 12,000 cubic feet per second.

Stay tuned to News Radio KMAN for the latest weather updates.

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Severe thunderstorms could bring damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall to northeast and east-central Kansas Tuesday, followed by an increased risk of flooding Wednesday and Thursday.

The National Weather Service in Topeka says showers and thunderstorms are likely beginning late Tuesday afternoon, with rain chances ranging from 60% to 90% through Thursday.

A slight risk, or Level 2 of 5, for severe thunderstorms is in effect Tuesday for much of the region, including Manhattan, Junction City and Topeka. Storms are expected to develop along a cold front Tuesday afternoon and continue into the evening.

Forecasters say some storms could produce wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, hail between 1 and 1.5 inches in diameter and rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. The location of the cold front will determine where the greatest severe weather threat develops.

Heavy rainfall is expected to become the primary concern Wednesday into Thursday morning. The Weather Service says portions of east-central Kansas have a 50% to 70% chance of receiving at least 2 inches of rain by Thursday morning.

Manhattan has about a 36% chance of receiving at least 2 inches, according to the Weather Service’s forecast graphic. Some areas of east-central Kansas could receive 3 to 4 inches, although confidence in rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches remains low.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported Monday morning that Tuttle Creek Reservoir was utilizing 13% of its flood storage capacity, with conservation storage at 100%.

As of 8 a.m. Monday, the reservoir’s elevation stood at 1,092.44 feet, down 0.81 feet from the previous reporting period. Inflows were measured at 4,070 cubic feet per second, while outflows were running at 12,000 cubic feet per second.

Stay tuned to News Radio KMAN for severe weather updates.

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By Morgan Chilson

TOPEKA — Kansas weather lived up to its tempestuous reputation Wednesday as the dregs of Hurricane Polo launched more than a dozen tornadoes throughout the state.

“Kansas dished out tornadoes like Santa handing out candy canes,” wrote one storm chaser who posts online as Kansas Twisters. “No idea how many there were, but I was blessed to see 10-15 today.”

Accuweather reported that about 12 tornadoes touched down, but the severe weather created dozens of additional funnels. On Thursday, heavy rains resulted in flood watches.

Recent weather has been unusual, with an “incredible run” of above normal temperatures for 37 days, as of Tuesday, said Matthew Sittel, assistant state climatologist.

In a weekly climate report, Sittel said while high temperatures during the day were about normal, night temps weren’t falling into the lows expected for September.

“The lack of chilly starts to the day at this point in the year is quite unusual and is, in some cases, unprecedented,” Sittel said.

Goodland is an example, he said. The coldest temperature through Sept. 29 was 50 degrees, whereas the normal low is 45.

“In over 130 years of climate data, there has never been a September at Goodland in which it didn’t fall into the 40s at least once,” Sittel said in the climate update. “It’s a similar story at Wichita, where 60 degrees is the coldest September temperature. This too is unprecedented.”

Sittel said that in 140 years of recordkeeping, 55 degrees is the warmest monthly minimum for September in Wichita.

Winter weather projections may be affected by El Nino, a weather event that occurs when ocean temperatures rise, shifting wind patterns. Warnings of a “super El Niño” hit over the summer, with accompanying projections about what that means for the winter climate.

Sittel said in an email to Kansas Reflector that the June, July and August average sea surface temperature was the “most above normal” for that time frame since 1950.

“This is based on a new formulation called RONI, the Relative Oceanic Niño Index,” he said. “It’s an index that considers the temperatures with respect to a normal sea surface temperature that has changed over the years. Saying that it’s the warmest ever, if true, suggests this is all due to El Niño.”

Sittel hesitates to use the term “super El Niño,” which he said was coined by the news media and has no official definition.

During an El Niño, the sea temperatures are warmer than average and, yes, it looks as if those temperatures are higher than in previous years. What does that mean for the upcoming months?

NPR reported that El Nino effects are ramping up the number of hurricanes in the Pacific and also responsible for the lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic. With no ocean in sight, what is Kansas likely to see?

“That’s not a bad thing for Kansas,” Sittel said. “El Niño years on average have produced slightly above normal precipitation totals across Kansas during the winter months. The key here is this is an average; it’s not a guarantee that it will happen, just a tendency when all historical events are averaged.”

It is difficult to determine what will happen because there isn’t good historical data about strong El Niños, he said.

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Tuttle Creek Lake remained above its conservation pool Monday morning as inflows into the reservoir continued to increase ahead of another round of potentially heavy rainfall.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data showed the lake elevation at 1,080.15 feet Tuesday morning about 5.15 feet above the top of the conservation pool at 1,075 feet.

Inflow into Tuttle Creek increased from 9,100 cubic feet per second on Monday to 10,740 cfs Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, releases from the dam were also increased, with outflow rising from 4,000 cfs on Monday to 7,583 cfs Tuesday morning.

The increased inflows come as another period of wet weather is expected across northeast and north-central Kansas. Forecasts call for rounds of rain and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Thursday night, with widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2.5 inches and isolated amounts of 4 to 5 inches possible.

The Manhattan area could receive 2 to 3 inches of rain, increasing the potential for flooding where heavier storms repeatedly move across the same areas.

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Several rounds of heavy rain could bring a risk of flooding to northeast and north-central Kansas beginning Tuesday evening and continuing through Thursday night.

The National Weather Service in Topeka says a slow-moving, moisture-rich system is expected to produce widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2.5 inches, with isolated amounts of 4 to 5 inches possible. A few light showers could linger into Friday.

The Manhattan area is forecast to receive between 2 and 3 inches of rain. The Weather Service puts the probability of receiving more than 2 inches in Manhattan at 47%, while the probability of more than 3 inches is 22%, according to forecast maps included in Monday’s outlook.

Rain chances are expected to begin Tuesday evening in north-central Kansas before slowly spreading southeast through Thursday. Forecasters said a couple periods of heavy rain could produce flooding, although spreading the rainfall over several days could limit the extent of flooding.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily across north-central and central Kansas. Wind gusts around 60 mph would be the primary severe weather threat. Forecasters said confidence in severe storms is medium-low, with heavy rainfall remaining the primary weather concern.

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Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop across northeast and east-central Kansas Saturday evening, bringing a threat of damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall.

The National Weather Service in Topeka says areas along and southeast of a line from Salina to Marysville are under a slight, or Level 2 of 5, risk for severe thunderstorms. That includes the Manhattan area.

Forecasters say storms could begin developing between 5 and 7 p.m. along a cold front, with the location and speed of the front determining where and when storms develop.

The strongest storms are expected between 6 and 11 p.m. Damaging winds of 60 to 65 mph and hail up to 1 inch in diameter are the primary severe weather threats, along with heavy rainfall.

The strongest storms are expected to move east of the area around midnight, with the severe weather threat decreasing as the night continues.

The National Weather Service says confidence is high that thunderstorms will develop, while confidence in severe weather is considered medium and will depend on how conditions develop Saturday.

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Scattered thunderstorms could bring damaging winds and heavy rainfall to parts of northeast and east-central Kansas Tuesday, with a Flood Watch in effect for portions of the region.

The National Weather Service in Topeka says scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could develop Tuesday afternoon and evening near a cold front expected to stretch from Oskaloosa through Topeka to Council Grove. The area is under a marginal, or Level 1 of 5, risk for severe thunderstorms.

A Flood Watch is in effect from 1 p.m. Tuesday through 1 p.m. Wednesday for portions of the area. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, with rainfall rates potentially reaching 1 to 2 inches per hour. Repeated storms over the same locations could lead to flooding.

The heaviest rainfall is expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Forecasters say there is some uncertainty about exactly where the heaviest rain will develop because the position of the front could shift north or south.

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Dangerous heat will continue across northeast Kansas Tuesday, with the potential for severe thunderstorms developing later in the day.

The National Weather Service in Topeka says an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 p.m. Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to reach 100 to 105 degrees, with heat index values as high as 109 degrees.

In Manhattan, the heat index is forecast to reach about 106 degrees Tuesday. Heat index values could approach 100 degrees again Wednesday, although clouds and precipitation could keep temperatures lower than forecast.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front late Tuesday afternoon across north-central and northeast Kansas and continue into the overnight hours. The area is under a marginal, level 1 of 5, risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds around 60 mph are the primary concern, with hail up to an inch in diameter also possible.

The Weather Service says additional storms could develop Wednesday afternoon across east-central Kansas, primarily along and southeast of the Interstate 35 corridor. Those storms could also produce damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, though confidence in severe weather remains low.

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Dangerous heat will continue across the Manhattan area through Saturday, with another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday evening.

The National Weather Service in Topeka says an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for most of the area into Saturday evening. Heat index values in Manhattan are expected to reach about 106 degrees Friday afternoon and around 105 degrees Saturday before significantly cooler conditions arrive Sunday.

Forecasters also have the Manhattan area under a marginal risk, level 1 of 5, for severe thunderstorms Friday evening. Storms are possible between 6 p.m. and midnight, with damaging winds of 60 to 65 mph the primary threat. Small hail is also possible. Forecast confidence remains low on the exact coverage and timing of the storms.

Another round of storms could develop Saturday between about 4 and 10 p.m. The National Weather Service again lists damaging winds as the main severe-weather threat, with a lower risk for small hail.

Relief from the prolonged heat is expected Sunday, when Manhattan’s afternoon heat index is forecast to remain in the low to mid-90s.

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Northeast Kansas could see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall through Friday before hot and humid conditions return for the weekend, according to the National Weather Service in Topeka.

Forecasters say two rounds of thunderstorms are expected between Wednesday night and Friday morning, bringing widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across much of the region. While the threat of severe weather remains low, the repeated rainfall could produce isolated flooding, especially Thursday night into Friday.

The National Weather Service said the chance for severe thunderstorms is less than 5%, with heavy rain expected to be the primary hazard. Some storms could also produce gusty winds.

After the rain moves out, temperatures are expected to climb rapidly over the weekend. Forecasters expect heat index values to reach between 105 and 107 degrees Sunday and Monday across much of northeast Kansas, including around 106 degrees in Manhattan on Sunday and 105 degrees on Monday.

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